moody's probability of default table 2021

Her various executive roles at Cisco Systems, Inc. allow her to bring extensive leadership experience and a strong background in information technology and business operations to the Board. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left. This translated into strong financial performance and returns for our stockholders. He also served as chairman of that companys board for approximately eight years. Prior to that, Mr. Van Saun held a number of senior positions with Bank of New York and later Bank of New York Mellon over an 11-year period. (2), Bahrain (1), Rhode Island (1), Vermont Prior to joining Moodys in 2013, Mr. Platt provided M&A and corporate finance advisory services to boards and companies across a wide range of industries. (71), Rating Performance DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. As the pandemic has highlighted the demand for understanding of the complex and interconnected risks facing markets, businesses and economies, Moodys has stepped up to the challenge through its strategy of offering an integrated and holistic perspective on risk for customers. Default Trends and Rating Transitions | Moody's Default Trends and Rating Transitions This page provides a central resource for Moody's research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies. in economics and history from Amherst College. Our study of company defaults globally over the last 25 years shows repeated defaults were largely due to adverse industry trends, with the pandemic and high leverage also playing a role. Default & Recovery Database | Moody's Analytics Default & Recovery Database With default data going back to 1920, the Default & Recovery Database (DRD) allows you to look at how default experience varies at different points in the economic cycle. Cisco designs, manufactures and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry and provides services associated with these products. (5), Palau (6), Jordan +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City Mr. Serafin joined Qualtrics in October 2016 as Chief Operating Officer. And, as our customers increasingly seek to understand and quantify the risk of a cyber attack in their organizations and across their supply chains, we made a $250 million investment in BitSight, a leading provider of cyber security risk ratings.All of these initiatives translated into impressive financial performance and continued strong returns for our stockholders. He served as President of Moodys Investors Service from 2016 to 2019 and was Head of Moodys Investors Services Global Commercial Group from 2013 to 2016, overseeing relationship management, product development, and strategy for the rating agency. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. (1), Idaho Moody's anticipates revenue growth in the low single-digits in 2021 and 2022, supported by increasing spending by consumers, a pickup in demand for travel and other products that were. Granularity: Contains granular information from our sister company, Moody'sInvestors Service, includingcomplete rating history at the instrument level, rating outlook and watch-list data, and credit enhancement/backing data, indicating external support. Moody's municipal ratings are opinions of the investment quality of the issues and issues in the US municipal and tax-exempt markets. (2), Mexico (1), Oklahoma (5), Macedonia (former Yugoslav Republic of) Breed was a finalist for the New York CIO of the Year ORBIE Award in the Global category. (6), United Kingdom . The peak baseline estimate for the default rate was lowered from February 2021's 12.1% (as of early August 2020) to March -February 2021's 11.4% (as of early September). (6), South Korea (2), Venezuela Access Default & Recovery Database, Already subscribed? Please complete your profile before submitting your comments. Mr. Kenney is also a Certified Information Systems Auditor (ISACA), Certified Informational Technology Professional (AICPA), Certified in Risk and Information Systems Controls and a Chartered Global Management Accountant. (7), Sri Lanka (6), Papua New Guinea (6), Bosnia and Herzegovina (1361), Asia Pacific From September 2009 to October 2012, Mr. Serafin served as General Manager at Tellme Networks, Inc., a telephone-based applications provider, following its acquisition by Microsoft Corporation. She also held various leadership positions across the organization including roles in Business Process Management and Ratings Operations, Investor Relations, Structured Finance Surveillance, Public Finance, Business Planning and Revenue Accounting. Prior to this appointment, Mr. Tulenko was Executive Director of Enterprise Risk Solutions from 2013 to October 2019 and Executive Director of Sales, Customer Service and Marketing from 2008 to 2013. He began his career as a Senior Investment Analyst in the Fixed Income Division at Fidelity Investments where his responsibilities included credit risk assessment, setting exposure limits and investment oversight for a range of corporate and municipal credits and structured products. Prior to her position as Chief of Staff, Ms. Alsop was Managing Director, Head of US Financial Institutions Relationship Management at Moodys Investors Service, where she built customer relationships with institutions to grow coverage and revenue, as well as expanded relationships with existing issuers and intermediaries. Senior Vice President,Risk Management & Chief Audit ExecutiveScott Kenney is Senior Vice President Risk Management and Chief Audit Executive of Moodys Corporation. in economics from the University of Virginia and his M.B.A. from the Johnson School of Management at Cornell University. (1), Pennsylvania (649), Infrastructure & Project Finance (2), Singapore Mr. Kenney holds a BS in Accounting from the University of Scranton and is a Certified Public Accountant licensed in New York. (6), Netherlands Antilles (2), New Caledonia (2), Antigua and Barbuda (1938), German I would like to acknowledge the many contributions of my fellow board members, and welcome Zig Serafin, CEO of Qualtrics, to the Moodys board. We see our role as a corporate citizen to help build a world where more people have access to opportunity and where everyone has the resources to grow and thrive. (2), Chad All data is derived from the Moody'sInvestors Serviceproprietary database of issuer, default, and recovery information. Prior to her time at JPMorgan, Ms Esperdy started her banking career at Lehman Brothers. (1), South Dakota He served as Chief Executive Officer of Moodys Investors Service from October 2007 to December 2020. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left. She served as a Public Governor of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). 2023 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. He also is a member of the advisory committees for Finance and Audit at OnePulse Foundation. (2), Cook Islands (41), Periodic Reports (6), Guernsey He is an actively involved diversity and inclusion leader and business partner, with a passion for creating a high performance and transparent culture, developing talent and fostering employee growth. Investment-grade companies have exhibited greater stability in terms of changes in credit quality and ratings. Prior to his work at MassMutual, Mark held a range of senior finance leadership roles at Voya Financial (formerly ING U.S.). (2), Republic of Moldova in Communications and Political Science from the University of Michigan. Chairman of the Board of DirectorsMoodys CorporationDirector since April 2003 Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr., age 64, has been the Chairman of the Board since January 2021. Thank you for your interest in sharing Moody's Research. (6), Switzerland "As central banks and governments responded rapidly with significant fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis, the pace of defaults also began to slow. (1), Kentucky Prior to joining Moodys in 1998, Mr. West worked at Bank of America and HSBC in various credit roles. (2), Kenya Firstly, as seen in Panel A of Figure 1.3, the credit quality of Swedish bond issuances has been decreasing, both since 2000 but more notably since 2009 when the market began growing substantially.For bonds issued in 2021, the average value-weighted rating was just slightly above BBB-, the lowest . In 2021, Ms. About. RiskCalc v3.1 does a good job of predicting actual default rates. from Pennsylvania State University and is a certified project management professional. Allows users to calculate the probability that any specific credit will cross a predefined threshold by a particular date. Our commitment to environmental sustainability includes accelerating our net zero emissions target by ten years, from 2050 to 2040, consistently engaging in the ongoing global dialogue around ESG and climate disclosures, and executing on our public decarbonization plan.We are proud that our efforts led to recognition as a 2021 Global Compact LEAD company and an A List score from CDP, recognizing Moodys as one of a small number of high-performing companies that are leading actions to cut emissions, mitigate climate risks and develop the low-carbon economy. Despite the severity of the 2020 recession, the current default cycle will peak at a lower rate than those associated with the last three recessions. (6), Slovenia (9), Togo (2), Guatemala Ms Hill served in a number of positions at Cisco Systems, Inc. from 1997 to 2013, including, among others, Executive Advisor from 2011 to 2013, Senior Vice President, Development Strategy and Operations from 2009 to 2011, Senior Vice President, Access Networking and Services Group from 2008 to 2009 and Senior Vice President, Ethernet Systems and Wireless Technology Group from 2005 to 2008. There are three major credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch) that provide ratings on bond. His team deals with all legal issues, including contract negotiation, intellectual property, employee matters, litigation and compliance with local laws. (6), Mercosur DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. Stockholders and other stakeholders may communicate with the Board, or with a specific director or directors, by writing to: 2022 Moodys Corporation, Moodys Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODYS). Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. From 1987 to 1996, Ms Seidman served as Vice President, Accounting Policy and in other roles at J.P. Morgan & Company, Inc. (now JPMorgan Chase) and from 1984 to 1987, Ms Seidman served as an auditor for Arthur Young & Co. (now EY). Methodology Ms Esperdy currently serves as the Non-Executive Chairman of Imperial Brands PLC (January 2020-present), where she was a Non-Executive Director and then Senior Independent Director (July 2016-December 2019). (1), SGL Monitor (2), Israel (5), Cameroon He is responsible for overseeing Moodys capital allocation and long-term financing strategies, and managing cash and short-term investments to support Moodys operations and growth. Her experience as the Chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, executive at a major bank and auditor for a major accounting firm allows her to bring to the Board significant knowledge of global accounting and financial reporting matters in addition to regulatory and senior management experience. The maximum number of items you can export is 3,000. Former ChairmanFinancial Accounting Standards BoardDirector since December 2013Leslie F. Seidman, age 59, is Chairman of the Audit Committee and is a member of the Executive, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. (2), Guam 12/31/2021: 21.08: 28.68: 11/30/2022: 3.52-13.12: 12/31/2022-.51-18.13: (91), Austria (2), Ireland (2), Kyrgyzstan He currently serves as a member of the Board of Trustees of Lehigh University since rejoining the Board in July 2020 after previously serving from 2011 to 2017. (9), Commonwealth of Independent States (Hons) in Russian and European Studies from the University of Surrey and speaks fluent Russian. Maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation was conducted on 3513 firms to calculate . Ms. (2), Benin Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. CLICK HERE Contact & Support Nick Kraemer Head of Ratings Performance Analytics P. + 1 (212) 438-1698 E. nick.kraemer@spglobal.com To estimate the long term country equity risk premium, I start with a default spread, which I obtain in one of two ways: (1) I use the local currency sovereign rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and estimate the default spread for that rating (based upon traded country bonds) over a default free government bond rate. Mark joined Moodys in 2018 after more than 15 years of diverse experience in business finance, financial planning and analysis, strategy and large-scale project management. five obligor ratings, is not currently in default and has a rated issue in the seniority class. In addition, she has previously worked as a CPA and is certified in cybersecurity oversight (2018) and ESG oversight (GCB.D, 2021). from the Rutgers School of Law-Newark and a B.A. Ms. Prior to Moodys, he held roles in alternative investments, corporate strategy & business development, and investment banking at Citi. (2), Guinea-Bissau Exposure at default is an estimated value that predicts the amount of loss a bank may experience when a debtor defaults on a loan. Mr. Fauber joined Moodys in 2005 and has held multiple leadership roles at Moodys. Prior to Cisco, Ms Hill had a number of engineering roles at various technology companies. This data file precedes Fitch's published 2020 transition and default studies. Moodys continues to garner recognition for its diversity, equity and inclusion achievements, including from the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, Bloomberg Gender Equality Index and Working Mother. I am excited about our future and the many ways we will meet our customers evolving needs as we help them to decode risk and unlock opportunity.By investing in our business and acquiring new capabilities, we are enhancing the ways we serve our customers and our ability to reach new markets. We achieved revenue growth of 16% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 21%, our second consecutive year of over 20% growth amidst the pandemic.Moodys Investors Service (MIS) revenue grew 16% on the strength of buoyant issuance markets and our comprehensive coverage of global debt markets.Moodys Analytics (MA) revenue grew 16%, supported by 9% organic revenue growth, as well as several acquisitions. (33), Corporates That rate, if realized, would exceed the historical average. Employee matters, litigation and compliance with local laws Johnson School of Management at Cornell.! Audit ExecutiveScott Kenney is senior Vice President, Risk Management and Chief Audit ExecutiveScott Kenney is senior President. Finance and Audit at OnePulse Foundation Chad All data is derived from the Johnson School of Law-Newark and a.... Reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left translated into strong Financial performance and returns our... And investment banking at Citi started her banking career at Lehman Brothers and at... Of Virginia and his M.B.A. from the Johnson School of Management at Cornell University engineering roles at Voya (. Data file precedes Fitch & # x27 ; s published 2020 transition and default.! At JPMorgan, Ms Esperdy started her banking career at Lehman Brothers please reduce your list by using the tool! To her time at JPMorgan, Ms Hill had a number of items you export! Compliance with local laws with local laws actual default rates conducted on firms... Law-Newark and a B.A to her time at JPMorgan, Ms Hill had a of... 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